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Strategies & Market Trends : Dividend investing for retirement
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To: JimisJim who wrote (9851)8/14/2011 4:32:48 PM
From: Jacob Snyder  Read Replies (2) of 34328
 
Thanks for your reply.

Are there any Rules you'd add to my list? Anything important I'm leaving out?

The reason for my last rule (sell half when stock doubles or hits multiyear highs), is because I think we will eventually (within the next 10 years), hit a PE10 of 5-10 for the stock market. (PE10 uses average EPS for prior 10 years, to smooth cyclical noise)

You can think of examples from your portfolio, where my rule wouldn't have worked. But....are there more examples, where it would have worked? Do this experiment: backtest for the last 5 years, and see if my rule would have improved your returns overall. I'm guessing it would.

LT market PE10 (10-20 is the LT range; given ultra-low interest rates, the upper end is perhaps 25 now):

multpl.com
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