Big Dog's Official Handicap and Prediction of the 2012 Presidential Election
1. The GOP nominee will be Rick Perry.
Romney, for some reason, just can not and will not "catch fire". He couldn't beat as weak a candidate as McCain last go 'round. He is just "yucky". Perry is a much more formidable campaigner, and will not be known as a RINO, as was McCain. There is just something about Romney that the folks don't dig, plus he has a fair amount of political baggage with RomneyCare, flip flops, and the undertone of his religion (although I hear this mentioned, I think it is not a big factor).
Perry will be attacked as being Texan and opponents (from the left) will try to paint him with the same brush as Bush. I don't think this will stick, but it will be ever-present. He appeals to the right establishment, the Tea Party and has broad enough appeal to reach the center folks. He is a very good campaigner if he doesn't start saying stupid things like "Texas should secede". He knows how to get elected, and in fact, in my view, is the only electable candidate of the GOP stable. Do not dismiss that Texas charm, Perry has plenty of it. The people like likable people, even if they don't like the way they talk.
Bachman, while appealing to a large and influential swath of Americans, will be an influence. And truth be known, she is probably what the country really needs. But she is not electable. She is a bit wacky in her own right. Maybe she would be a good VP pick for Perry, but he will likely need someone that is less of a lightning rod since he will already have the Tea Party vote.
2. A healthy development, for the country, would be a challenger to Obama for the Dem nomination. And the only one who might stand a chance would be Hillary. Don't count Hillary out. She is laying low, but could launch incoming at any moment.
3. Perry wins (and the GOP takes the Senate, keeps the House). The only thing to upset this result would be if Hillary challenges Obama. If Hillary would be the Dem nominee, she wins...hands down.
4. Markets soar when it starts to look like Perry will be the next Prez.
Take it to the bank, so sayeth the Dog.
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