Hi Jim. Sorry, don't know what happened there. Here's some of the text...........
FINALLY: HOPE FOR THE GOLD BUGS?
By Tim Zurick
11/10/97
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This, in my humble opinion, is one bearish-looking chart..
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That big, long down bar occurred on the day Switzerland, announced a ten year program to liquidate its gold reserves (they later changed their mind). If ever a country was identified with a sound currency, backed by substantial gold holdings, it would be Switzerland. A couple months prior to Switzerland's' announcement, Australia announced similar intentions. Central banks in general, have been rumored to be liquidating their gold for over a year. Informed commentators have recently been predicting an international trend toward global DEFLATION. There are not only no major military conflicts in progress, there appears to be very little POTENTIAL for international conflict, with the exception of Iraq. Even when the Dow collapsed over 500 points recently, there was no flight to the safety of gold. Gold was DOWN that day! Can the picture both technically and fundamentally get more bearish for gold?
I don't think so. That's why I think it's almost time to get long this market. My mind was made up when I started hearing the pundits talking about $280 gold. That, to me, is ridiculous. And when I hear what I consider ridiculous extrapolations of existing trends, I'm eager to fade those pundits.
For this particular market, I recommend buying February futures and purchasing a nearby put since gold volatility remains fairly low and options are relatively cheap. Call me to discuss entry and exit strategies.
There are other possible ways to set up a bullish position. Several possible option plays come to mind. By utilizing options and option/ future spreads, one can basically construct a positions with a wide variety of characteristics: time decay or no time decay, limited or unlimited risk/ reward potential and positions designed to take advantage of a short or long term move- or no move at all. |
