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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy?
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To: Alphonse Viazzo who wrote (18555)11/18/1997 2:46:00 PM
From: Don Earl  Read Replies (2) of 42771
 
Hi Alphonse,

Well, I'm sure you will read this post with glee, so I'll give it to you first in exchange for all the times I poked fun at your short position.

I sold the rest of my stock, and now just hold puts.

The reasons I decided to change positions are more like fuzzy warnings than anything else. It appears that the 1,000,000 share sale of Corel stock took place at the end of the quarter. My guess is at about a $6 million loss. Hard saying how the crash affected their other investments as the bond market was doing well during that peroid. The CFO sold shares at the end of the quarter which has been the pattern for the last two quarters prior to negative surprises. My last conversation with IR suggests that Schmidts stopping end of quarter discounting may have changed traditional buying patterns by resellers. I should stress that, that was my interpretation more than anything that was clearly stated. I see no evidence that Schmidts promise to increase Novells advertizing budget took place. Microsofts revenues were stronger than I expected last quarter and various surveys (that I take with a grain of salt) indicate that NTs growth in the small business market has gone unchecked. Charts indicate an over bought condition and a potential gap filling move back to 8 1/8.

FWIW, I tend to play short term trends and often take risks that many investors would find unacceptable. My comments, opinions and amature analysis are never intended to be investment advise and are stated for the sole purpose of letting others know my position so they may take my comments with the skepticism they deserve.

Regards,

Don
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