Your technical work might play out, one of your scenarios. I wonder how that maps into
the sentiment. The Barrons cover last weekend is basically death to the bullish case.
I re-entered the markets last Friday and figured even with the barrons cover, maybe
I'd be right short term, that the markets would rally. I guess that was true for one day,
Monday. The Investor's Intelligence survey numbers are no where near a major
buy point. So those are two intermediate term sentiment indicators that say the
markets could go a lot lower. Then I go see some indications that individuals are
re-entering the markets. Some fund managers are saying they are seeing individuals
using this market weakness as a buying op. Well, guess what, that is not what happens
anywhere NEAR a bottom.
Don't get me wrong. I want to believe the bullish case. I am long the R2K with my serious
money. And I have a 6% total portfolio loss in one day. That has not happened even
once before.
However, this board is not about me getting out a kleenex and asking for sympathy.
Tough weinees. However, I, like others, have to figure out what to do going forward.
I see the possibility of a very large loss right in here, based on sentiment. If the market
is going to establish a sentiment bottom, with bulls tossing in the towel, that is
going to take a lot of downward price action, apparently.
Personally, I am reaping the downside of the way I trade. 100% in, 100% out.
Maybe I've merely been overly lucky up until now. |
