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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room
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To: Dennis Roth who wrote (155791)8/20/2011 11:10:08 AM
From: Eric1 Recommendation   of 206092
 
The US Energy Information Administration's Faulty Peak Oil Analysis Posted by Rembrandt on August 19, 2011 - 3:04am
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: eia, global peak oil, us mineral management service, usgs [ list all tags]


This is a guest post by Eric L. Garza. Eric recently earned a PhD at the University of Vermont in Environmental Science with a focus on Energy Systems. Eric blogs at Path 2 Resilience.

Introduction

Crude oil provides 35-40% of global primary energy and is a vital driver of economic productivity. The question of when oil supply will reach its global peak is an important and controversial question that is gaining increased attention from a wide array of researchers, commentators and policy makers. Many analysts, including now even the International Energy Agency in its 2010 World Energy Outlook accept the possibility of a near-term peak in global oil supply. The United States Energy Information Administration (EIA) however, based on a report published in 2004, remains optimistic about the future of global oil supply and maintains that global peak oil will not likely occur before 2030. How does the EIA remain optimistic given the growing trend throughout the world towards energy pessimism? This post will explain the methodology that underlies the EIA's optimistic oil supply vision, and will point out two important flaws in this methodology that call their results into question. It will finally replicate the EIA's forecasts using a simple methodological correction and demonstrate the the agency's oil optimism is unfounded...

The rest of the story:

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