The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread Message Board

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Pastimes : The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread

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Dec 19 4:00 PM EST

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To: Kirk © who wrote (6269)	8/21/2011 10:35:31 PM
From: marc ultra	3 Recommendations Read Replies (3) of 10065

<May I suggest you look at the December 2007 MT when the S&P was 1481 and he gave the GIFT HORSE for mid 1400s You continue to be repetitive as you choose to ignore the black swans that intervened. Oil was $70 in August '07 and then started rapidly increasing, finished the year at $96 and continued on it's way to reach $145 by July '08. These factors would take a good deal of time before they would affect the kind of factors that go into Bob's model. I thought at the time that we could get away with sluggish growth and at worst a very mild recession. But oil continued to spike at the same time as the housing bubble had burst and then Bear Stearns failing further shook things up. We were at a borderline bear and borderline recession when Lehman hit, plunging us into a hellish inferno which Bob's model, not including Dante as a factor, did not call.

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