OT: Bob: You are right. It is not 'the solution'. Let's just say it buys a bit more time.
The numbers say Cdn crude is one hellova big 'drop'. 2 million bbl/day is quite significant with growth potential for above 4 million bbl/d in a reasonable, but extended, time frame. Unfortunately, all the growth would go into PADD II. With all the games to date, IMHO, it is a no brainer that non-USA markets would be established instead.
US production is 5,612 kbpd (May/11, EIA) but with a US demand of ~18,000 kbpd it's going to be more than tough if any of the credible peak oil projections are even close. Many tough choices ahead anyway but, IMHO, just not do-able at 18,000 kbpd.
It might be do-able with US crude consumption down to, say, 12,000 kbpd in 10 years. The trick is to achieve this type of demand destruction without completely destroying the economy and social structure. The combination of large population and high 'crude oil intensity' in the US makes the problem a big one.
nationmaster.com
US was 68.672 bbl/day per 1,000 people in 2009
Australia: 47.284 bbl/day per 1,000 people
Germany: 29.805 bbl/day per 1,000 people
United Kingdom: 29.008 bbl/day per 1,000 people
The USA at 12,000 kbpd would give a crude intensity of ~46 bbl/day per 1000 people and would be quite the transition.
However, I am an optimist. Foolish me thinks that sanity will prevail. (Just a character flaw.)
Ray |
