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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services
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To: Michael Berkel who wrote (3087)11/18/1997 5:04:00 PM
From: Thean  Read Replies (1) of 95453
 
Mike, you raised a lot of questions about the justification of the shift turn in current sentiment. They are all valid questions except we are not going to find out exactly why. Paraphrasing what Jimmy ? (the bowtie bachelor who appears as guest on CNBC every Friday) favorite line "... don't worry about the FED, just watch the market", I think that is as good an explanation we will ever get. Remember, analysts HAVE to make up explanations to appear smart. I really don't give a damn what the analysts are saying at this point. The fundamentals have not changed. When the fundamentals changed, we will know it, the market will know it. I don't see it, do you? So why don't just accept what the market gives us and follow the crowd. It is too late to sell unless the fundies change. It may be too early to buy because the trend has not turned. What is left is cash. Hold on to it and buy all you can when the tide turns.

As to if I believe history will repeat itself that simply? I would say the January 1997 stretch that acually lasted about 7 weeks from top to bottom is as scary as it gets since the the drillers woke up last year. If this downtrend tops that, then this one will be used as the worst selloff reference for next year. In short - I don't know.

Good luck.
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