AMAT chart, prediction, and buy plan:
Prediction: AMAT hits 8$, before end-2012, and at least 16$ on the next upcycle.
The chart tells us, what the last 2 earnings seasons have been saying: the top is in, and the trend is down. Fundamentals and TA agree.
The bottom will be, approximately:
1. after RSI on weekly chart goes below 30
2. not before the stock is at least cut in half, from the previous cycle high (16.93$ in March 2011). This always happens, every cycle.
3. when rallies stop failing at the 10wma (=50dma)
4. MACD crossover
5. when I am scared to buy, scared to even look at my portfolio, almost too scared to think (that's why I need a plan, because it's difficult to think clearly at those times).
Plan: Wait. Keep waiting. Load up at 8$, sell half when it hits 16$, hold the rest forever (while collecting steadily growing dividends).
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