SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Strategies & Market Trends : The Millennium Crash
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (1664)11/18/1997 5:07:00 PM
From: Cage Rattler  Read Replies (1) of 5676
 
GZ:

A fair enough come back. It may be gradually sinking in.

I uncovered something interesting just playing around with this graphing and extended lines. I track S&P and LB rates so I have been fooling around graphing and drawing lines using Excel.

Check this out - using Sep 1996 LB-rate high of 7.15% extend a line from that point through the bisection of a line connecting the November 1996 low of 6.34% to the 7.13% high of April 1997. I think these are fair values under my understanding of your comments. Very interesting -- the line approximates the slope of the LB-rate decline without projection penetration. Rates just bounce off like at 6.54% the closest approximation of our projected line.

Now using the S&P plot -- bisect the line between September 1997s high of 955.43 and October's 876 low and project your line from the 1996 low of 649 through the point of bisection. Now we see the line penetrated, and once penetrated the S&P has not risen above the line and just bounces off like the LB did.

My initial hypothesis, based upon this small observation, might be that once the line has been broken there may be a change in trend. If my hypothesis is to be tested let me experimentally predict the S&P should reach an approximate penetration point of 885 within the next week. I would project the LB to drop to 5.95 within the same time frame. I am making these experimental predictions assuming unchanged near-time slopes. Remember this is only the first hypothesis and should elicit modifying feedback.

Now GZ have I missed the boat entirely - am I still wandering through the tall grass?

Ciao, Ted
Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  

HomeMailHotSubjectMarksPeopleMarksKeepersSettings
Terms Of UseContact UsCopyright/IP PolicyPrivacy PolicyAbout UsFAQAdvertise on SI
© 2025 Knight Sac Media.  Data provided by Twelve Data, Alpha Vantage, and CityFALCON News