Brian, I don't believe in TA, other than to remember that a whole lot of other people do.
That said, why: December may be too close? When will we know how Christmas turned out? DWW II gave me pause last night with his comment. A Feb contract would be perfect but they are not offered at this time. Ditto Jan's, however, I'm not sure GTW could report prior to a Jan expiry. They may be cooking the books big time this year and will need time to noodle things out.
You are right, shorting is darn riskey, especially if you are out on margin. But if you are correct in your position, it will ultimately come back to you. Puts die of old age and premiums can melt pretty fast. Just stop out the short if the heat gets too high.
I believe Kat, a recent contributor to this thread, was the gal that shorted MU around 30 bucks and saw it climb to 60. But she stuck to her guns and is likely OK now - but what a ride! With puts she would have been dead meat, which she likely felt like a few times on that trip. In any event, I would just as soon not play poker with her. -g-
Regards, DWW |
