CYMI chart, prediction, and buy plan:
It's a well-managed company, which has done very well this upcycle. EPS, revenue, gross margin, all hitting 10-year highs this upcycle. 9$/share cash, no debt. Share count the same as 10 years ago.
But the stock has spent the last 10 years, wandering sideways. It went from 17$ to 58$ (2009 low to 2011 high). The usual range has been 24-50. In 5 of the last 10 years, it has reached 50$. In 7 of the last 10 years, it has reached 24$.
At a current market cap of 1.1B$, it could get bought by ASML.
I predict it will get below 24$ this downcycle (before end-2012), and at least 50$ next upcycle. Given its growth prospects, and improving company performance (comparing this peak to previous peaks) it could go well above 50$ next upcycle. One worry is, it had twice as much cash at the last cycle peak in 2007, as it does now.
The plan: buy at 24$; sell in increments, beginning at $50. Since it doesn't pay a dividend, there is no point in holding it through cycles.
Or maybe Bank of America knows better than me. On July 18, 2011, they issued a buy rating on CYMI, with a 55$ price target.
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