Parx,
You have elegantly stated the potential of fonix's technology. How close they are to that now, how close they're capable of getting with current management and alliances, and how well the competition will do in the meantime all appear to be areas we're in disagreement on.
I'm not critical of Siemens; I think they've got a sweet deal - they buy the equivalent of a couple of lottery tickets, and while they're waiting to see if it pays off, they've got an exclusive agreement, which prevents their competition from buying tickets in the same lottery.
I'm not critical of fonix management (on this issue); I think they got the best deal they could.
I do not think this deal provides much credibility for fonix (and neither does Wall Street, it seems), because Siemens is not making much of a commitment. They can ditch this deal tomorrow, as far as I can tell.
"the next step is effective product production" - I agree, and remain skeptical, not that a product can be produced, but that it, and any others utilizing fonix technology, will provide more than $1.00/share profit by the end of the next 2-3 years. None of the fonix bulls, save Frank, have even tried to provide documentation to the contrary, and as you can see, I wasn't convinced by his assumptions that fonix/Siemens would capture essentially 100% of the cellular phone (or any other) market, which was key to his calculations.
Bob |
