COHU chart and buy-not plan:
COHU is off my Tech Dividend Buy List Message 27451146
Reasons:
1. In order to pay a 4% dividend yield (my minimum threshold), the stock would have to reach 6$ (.24/6=4%). If COHU gets that low (below the 2009 low), then INTC (my standard for a Tech Dividend-payer) would probably be yielding at least 6%.
2. Gross margin has been declining, since 2004-5. For the last 5 years, GM has been around 33%, except during the recession, when it went to 20%. INTC's GM was 56% for 2009, and 65% for 2010.
3. Non-profitability: TTM EPS troughed at minus 1.56$ in 2Q09, and peaked at plus 1.25 in 1Q11. The current up-cycle's earnings will just balance the last down-cycle's losses.
4. share count has been going up, by about 2%/y for the last decade. Subtract the share dilution from the dividend, and there isn't anything being returned to shareholders.
Chart: The 60-month (=5Y) moving average has been trending down, since mid-2004. By itself, that wouldn't be a reason to delete it from my List. If I was going to buy COHU, I would wait till the RSI hits 30 on the monthly chart (as it did in 2009), the 2009 low have been taken out, and the company is reporting gross margins of 20%.
I'm also looking at whether TSM and TXN should be deleted from the Buy List. |
