re SOX has bottomed on Aug 9: I was sceptical, but so far you are right. We set a lower low on the 19th, but the two lows were so close, I'd call it a double bottom.
Now, the interesting question is: how long will the recent lows (on the SOX, SPX, Nas) hold?
This is just a re-statement of a question we've been talking about for a while on this board: Is the recent dip:
1. a correction in a continuing cyclical bull market, similar to mid-2010, or
2. the start of a bear market?
The fundamentals say the SOX goes sideways or lower. That's based on my reading of a lot of 1Q11 and 2Q11 earnings reports and conference calls, in tech companies. About the only event capable of changing that, would be QE3 (I'll cover any shorts, and go long KLIC, MU, NFLX the day that's announced).
Till that happens, I think the SOX will drift sideways for a while, or even move up to the 200dma (now at 417). But I'll make a prediction as specific as yours: For the rest of 2011, the 200dma will be a resistance line for the SOX (and a good place to short).
(For you, I added Bollingers. Enjoy.)
Not much volume in AMAT, as the price going ever lower. That $16.93 in March
was a multi-year high:
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