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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: Paul Senior who wrote (44109)	8/26/2011 10:48:43 PM
From: E_K_S	Read Replies (1) of 78670

Hi Paul My only other solar play in China is EI DuPont de Nemours & Co. (DD). I have had a pretty good run with this one. DD has Chinese JV partners in two new Solar manufacturing plants located in China. After several years manufacture solar panels, they finnaly have a good foot hold in China. It's still a small percentage of DD' total revenue maybe 5% (up from less than 1%). It could approach 10% or about $3B in 18-24 months especially w/ this new China "build solar" directive. Pretty much every panel produced in these two new facilities are sold to Chinese customers. The earlier thought was panels manufactured in China would be shipped to Europe and/or U.S. My thinking with AMAT was their SOLAR sales now approaching 13% with expanding margins (after the restructure) and a lower overall Forward PE of 8 from the analysts might make it a possible GARP "value" Buy. I thought they actually shut the division down because of their inefficiency in their first generation equipment w/o any positive outlook. I guess things changed. I believe SOLAR will eventually be a disruptive technology as efficiencies increase and the price of energy increases (especially coal in China). If the U.S. is going to be the leader in the technology advancement, companies like AMAT IMO must innovate the next generation equipment. I think at somewhat lower prices it may be worth a tracking position. That was one of the reasons I have kept 50% of my DD shares. It's off 22% from my earlier sales but still up 80% from my buys in 2008 (thanks to their Solar division). Maybe AMAT can be a player here. EKS P.S. I also added HPQ to my value tech watch list but it's still smells especially w/ the current BOD (they showed all resign) and new management. This was one of the premiere Silicon Valley companies (great innovators) until Carly got in 2000. I built my first calculator w/ free HWP parts in 1976 as a high school science project.

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