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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: E_K_S who wrote (44108)	8/26/2011 10:52:31 PM
From: Shane M	Read Replies (2) of 78664

EKS and Paul, again, I'm just trying to understand events here, but my impression from the call is AMAT feels they are close to "maintenance" levels of spending - close to what companies have to spend just to stay in the game. I think I had previously just seen a summary of the call but just read through the call just now. Alot it I didn't understand, esp the technical details, but just trying to catch the theme and spirit of the responses. In solar there was a comment regarding just to sell panels anymore you've got to be able to reach certain efficiencies and that also drives alot of the older equipment out. I got the vibe that several of the analysts were surprised by AMAT's strong outlook for solar - lots of the questions around that. AMAT was confident in both US and German spend - noting several concentration based solar installations (focus sun energy with mirrors) were being changed to PV given change in economics, and they were also still strong on Germany. I got the impression they felt China would pick up installations also. The other theme was - customers are pushing out orders reluctantly. This doesn't look like a deep hard crash to them - more of a shallow dip with maybe bottom around Dec or early 2012. They think there's too many cool products out there that consumers want in the mobility space. again, just my interpretation based on reading through - but AMAT mgmt sounded more upbeat than I think folks were expecting. just my $0.02 though - --- I am looking to catch the next upcycle on some of these though. I'm in ASML right now, and am long INTC - but could easily see myself adding a few more - perhaps AMAT, but there's lots of these showing up on my screens right now which led me to start looking into them again. FWIW - it doesn't hurt that AMAT seemed to bottom somewhere in the 8s in the crash of 2008 - not far from there right now, and this doesn't feel anything like 2008 to me. edit: funny - I just ran across this after posting: Message 27587893

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