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Politics : Mainstream Politics and Economics
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To: Brumar89 who wrote (12)8/28/2011 5:12:39 PM
From: Paul Smith2 Recommendations  Read Replies (2) of 85487
 
2012 is a gigantic election IMO and the country will be faced with two very different candidates with very different views of how to handle the office and two very differnt views regarding the direction the country should be headed. The 2012 winner will have the obligation to address the fiscal problems facing the country and facing the Federal budget. In addition, the 2012 winner will likely have multiple appointments to the Supreme Count which is currently very evenly divided.

In 2008, the country was suffering from GWB fatigue (just as it faced Clinton fatigue in 2000). Once Lehman Brothers collapsed, Obama's election was certain. While many think McCain was a weak candidate, there was nothing that McCain could have done to prevent a Democratic victory in that environment. Obama also benefited from a very well run campaign in which he succeeded in having people see what they wanted to see in him. Obama has to use a different playbook in 2012 and will be starting from a very different position - a position a great weakness IMO.

One last point - regardless of party, second terms usually don't go well. Think back on the differences between the Reagan first term and the Reagan second term and the Clinton first term vs. the Clinton second term and the GWB first term vs. GWB second term.........it makes me very nervous about an Obama second term.
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