Don: <solar's time is coming. I just wish I knew...>
Many people have that opinion. There are a lot of investors, who intend on remaining on the sidelines, until it becomes clearer that the industry is close to ending dependence on subsidies, has more diversified markets in more countries, is closer to grid parity, and balance sheets look better (because the companies aren't doubling capacity every 2-3 years, which eats up a lot of capital). By the time the picture is clearer, and there are bullish stories about solar on the front page of the Wall Street Journal, stocks in the best companies will be 5 to 10 times higher than today. The other companies, probably the large majority, will see their stocks go to zero. Right now, they are all small caps with 2.0-3.0 betas. There will come a time, when leading solar companies have market caps similar to leading oil and semi companies. Not next year, but 10 or 20 years down the road.
I am deliberately risking being early, in order to be certain I'm not late. The Opportunity Cost of being late, will be huge. |
