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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum
GLD 371.65-1.1%Nov 17 4:00 PM EST

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To: THE ANT who wrote (78946)9/3/2011 4:03:35 AM
From: elmatador1 Recommendation  Read Replies (1) of 217836
 
Macroeconomists are always trying to see the results of their actions or how the market is moving. That enable them to prepare their arsenal of countermeasures. They may see the wrong signs and misinterprete them.

Take Greenspan irrational exuberance. He saw it. But was persuaded that Y2K would cause damage to the economy and opened the tap.

And Bernanke. He saw some signs in the US economy and interpreted them as the growth coming. Called them greenshoots. They weren't.

Greenspan saw the economy tanking. Called 'going through a soft patch'. But it was not a soft patch. It was on the way to no growth a la Japan.

In the case o Mantega and Tombini, it can be that they are very confident they have enough weapons in their arsenal to act as they are doing.

In the case of foreign analyists it can be that they have not seen a country with Brazil's profile (growing from a lower base but inside the demographic window and already totally urbanized) in their life time (not knowing Portuguese is also a problem for them) and have no way to grasp what is really going on there.

But those guys and girls here in the thread have the luck to have Elmat enlightening them :-)
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