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Strategies & Market Trends : The Ego Forum

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To: ecrire who wrote (10559)9/4/2011 1:43:01 PM
From: hubris33  Read Replies (1) of 12175
 
Er, ah.... interesting COT conclusion..... ............................. .......................

.. could that be as a result of mixing time frames? Isn't the COT report a once a week snap shot on Tuesday of each week? So does it make sense that COT report data should be compared with weekly POG data from Tuesdays and not Friday?

So yeah, I would agree - trying to compare daily data with a once a day, weekly data - then there is poor correlations and as such a poor predictor.

So I'd suggest looking at all daily data or just comparing weekly COT report data, each individually, as a way to "see" trends.

Have been away and have not looked at COT data for a while. That said a weekly drop of 80K contracts sounds pretty high - that was the magnitude of the drop when that Hedge Fund blew up and liquidated its massive straddle positions. I'd look for a change in the margin requirements for a potential cause - either at an exchange or at a particular broker. Think I remember some kind of change report on the metals from IB, if memory serves.

Am I missing some thing? [wouldn't be the first time.]

H3
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