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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis
SOXX 296.74+1.8%Nov 28 4:00 PM EST
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From: Jacob Snyder9/6/2011 12:18:26 AM
3 Recommendations  Read Replies (2) of 95487
 
6 Signatures of recessions:
1. widening of credit spreads on corporate debt versus 6 months prior
2. S&P 500 below its level of 6 months prior
3. Treasury yield curve flatter than 2.5% (10-year minus 3-month)
4. year-over-year GDP growth below 2%
5. ISM Purchasing Managers Index below 54
6. year-over-year growth in total nonfarm payrolls below 1%
.......as well as important corroborating indicators, such as plunging consumer confidence

...the evidence we observe at present has 100% sensitivity (these conditions have always been observed during or just prior to each U.S. recession) and 100% specificity (the only time we observe the full set of these conditions is during or just prior to U.S. recessions).

Excerpts from: A Reprieve from Misguided Recklessness, John P. Hussman, August 29, 2011:
Message 27615430
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