Covered my MU short, getting out even. I did this because MU has been very strong, relative to the market (up 1.9%, when SPX is down 2.8%). Also sold my KLIC long position today, at a nice profit. This leaves me completely out of all semi and semi-equips at the moment.
My underlying assumptions:
1. 70% chance we are going to have a double-dip recession, and a cyclical bear market for stocks.
2. Semis and equips will go down more than the market goes down.
3. MU and KLIC are hi-beta proxies for their sectors, therefore
4. MU and KLIC will go down more than semis and equips go down, and are good trading vehicles.
I intend on shorting both KLIC and MU, on the next rally, probably beginning at SOX 360.
I'll post what I'm doing here, since everyone seem amused by the inter-play. I respect the opinions of everyone posting on this board, and that's true even when I take the opposite position. Although my trading and positioning has been good for the last year, this I probably just a lucky streak. I will make mistakes (I may be making them now, going long solars; my Treasury short isn't working well either). Intelligent dis-agreement, and back-testing, is the way to recognize and learn from mistakes. I'm very glad, both longs and shorts, long-term and short-term, TA and FA, are welcome on this board. |
