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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 306.28

-1.0%

Dec 4 4:00 PM EST

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To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (53697)	9/13/2011 4:55:54 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	1 Recommendation Read Replies (2) of 95526

Yes, I think Bookings have peaked for this cycle, but it has now been 14 months since the peak occurred in July of 2010. Detailed tabular data can be found at: Message 27580549 Also, more data can be found at the post preceding and after this post. New data with be forthcoming this Thursday on Booking, Billings and BtB for the month of August. I could be wrong obviously, but I think Bookings will be down again in August, but having started the downward trend in July 10, the downtrend is getting long in the tooth. <<I predict the cyclical trough happens a lot later than October 2011. Probably sometime during calendar 2012, and 2H is more likely than 1H. Bookings need to drop below 1B$, before we even start looking for the bottom.>> IMO, 2H is very pessimistic and I think it will be sometime in 1H. If that is true, we should be only a few months away from the start of another upward trend in stock prices.

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