It isn't an all-or-nothing event: <France walking away from nuclear power>
They won't "walk away". But, for decision-makers (in France, and more importantly in India and China) currently sitting on the fence, this new accident will have an effect.
And, yes, every piece of bad news for nuclear, is good news for natgas and solar.
What is important, is not the objective truth, but how people respond to it. An irrational response, if it fits into a consistent LT pattern of irrational responses, should influence our investing decisions: that same irrationality can be confidently expected in the future. Any investor who expects the world to be rational, will have a series of extremely unpleasant (and unprofitable) surprises.
People tolerate far less risk, from nuclear and airplane accidents, than they do from coal mining and auto accidents. There are predictable and persistent reasons for this. I could detail the patterns, of how humans assess risk, and the consistent mistakes we make in fearing (or not fearing) future risks.
My investing is informed by an understanding of chimp's Fight Or Flight instinct, territoriality in wolves, and caribou Herd Behavior. Understanding those, is at least as important as reading balance sheets (which I also do).
Recent trends indicate solar will reach grid parity (without subsidies) in Italy by 2013-2014, and gradually in the rest of Europe by 2020. |
