SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis
SOXX 309.40+1.0%Dec 5 4:00 PM EST

 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
To: pcyhuang who wrote (53698)9/13/2011 6:11:30 PM
From: Jacob Snyder1 Recommendation  Read Replies (2) of 95530
 
Your Market Carpet seems to consistently come up with good shorting candidates. DAL was up the most today. I have repeatedly and profitably shorted the airlines this year, and confidently expect to continue doing so. That industry has many of the characteristics of the memory chip industry: no profits, no visibility, high capital costs, serial "restructuring" and "recapitalizing" events. Some airlines have gone bankrupt more than once, and, amazingly, can still find investors to buy their stocks.

Another pattern: you post what happened in the last 24 hours, and I respond with what's happened in the last 10 years:

Delta, the nation's third-biggest airline, has been hurt by the recent spike in jet fuel prices and growing competition from lower-cost, low-fare carriers. Less than half an hour after Delta's filing, Northwest Airlines also filed for protection from creditors. Delta and Northwest followed United Airlines and US Airways into bankruptcy. money.cnn.com

That's news from 2005. Ancient history, useful because all the reasons they failed, are still true today.

Airlines are up today, because oil is down. Oil is down because the global economy is slowing, so demand is getting soft, for oil and all other commodities. Is this bullish?

Since emerging from bankruptcy in 2007: On the day after its IPO, DAL gapped down, and has never regained its IPO price.



More recently, the 50dma has been resistance since Dec. 2010. The 50dma crossed below the 200dma in February. The brief rally up to the 200dma in May, was an excellent shorting opportunity (I was shorting UAL at the time). The failure at the 200dma confirmed: the trend is down.

Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext