Semi Equipment Analysis Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 309.40

+1.0%

4:00 PM EST

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To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (53699)	9/13/2011 7:19:45 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (1) of 95526

<14 months since the (bookings) peak occurred in July of 2010> Yes, that was the highest month. However, bookings have been in a high plateau, just below the peak, until 2 months ago. Any bookings over 1.5B$ represents peak industry conditions. So, really, the downtrend has just started. Also: the peak in bookings doesn't coincide with the peak in stock prices. However, the trough in stock prices does happen while bookings are at (or very near) trough values. That is especially true, since the troughs have recently been U-shaped, instead of their pre-2000 pattern of V-shaped. So I don't think I will miss the bottom, if I wait till bookings stop going down.

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