Something a little above 26,000 currently. These are trial evaluations
Subscriber absolute potential is 100 million in US which is the number of homes with tv. Say half are on cable. One in ten has a pc. One in five is net aware. That leaves one million. However, in 5 years maybe half will have a pc or equivalent most of which will be net loaded. Now it looks like 30-40 million. Eventually, it will be 100 million. The cable will carry all info leads into the home. If you're trying to make some calculation about ATHM's share and revenues based on this, don't bother. It would be a fruitless exercise, since there are more unknowns than there are equations. You're either going to make a pile or you got a big fluctuation dog. In either case this ain't no trading vehicle, it is a buy and hold pure speculation. The most popular strategy is to wait and let Wall Street cook up a reason to smash the stock. Such a "scenario" probably will develop, soon, but if you go long below with the intent to catch a bounce you could get whacked. So look elsewhere for play toys. I will divulge this to you: there is persistent and extremely strong big block cold upticks every day, even when there is intermediate blocks on the downside in a down market. And the way these blocks hit---very cleverly executed, some of the best pro buying I've ever seen (27 years experience watching that dam tape).
Big guys can be just as wrong as little ones, but if you're big and you've seen the @Home experience, you can't afford to not own this one. |
