SOX and bookings: during 2008-9 trough, and since 1995:
Bookings were only below 300M$, for the 5 months of January through May 2009. That was the flat bottom of the "U." After the January data was reported, further declines were very small, compared to the previous collapse.
The SOX peaked at 549 in July 2007, with a lower high of 429 in May 2008. The lows were 168 in Nov. 2008, and a higher low of 188 in March 2009. 188 is 12% higher than 168. I'm not trying to make much of an issue of this, but it wasn't 40% higher, comparing the lows.
Maybe I'm overcompensating for my mistake in 2008, when I started buying AMAT at $17, way way way too early. But this time, before I start going long semi-equips, I'm going to wait till:
1. bookings are below 700M$ and
2. 2 consecutive reports with less than 10% declines, and
3. I'm still going to buy in increments over several months, because
4. I have little confidence in my ability to pick bottoms. Or tops.
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