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I have a call into Mr. Jaffe at IR to determine the mood at IVX, among other things. So far he has not returned my call.
Upon study of cash flow statements, it appears IVX may have somewhere in the neighborhood of $75 to $100 mill cash flow from operations for year ended 12/31/97. This represents about a 8 to 10 year payoff (not NetPresentValue but close enough). Based on this I think IVX is fairly valued around $9 or $10/share, Excluding Paxene sales if approved. Paxene sales should percolate mostly to the bottom line which should increase cash flow from operations nicely. If Paxene sales total $242 mill next year, roughly 25% of present market (see BM-S exerpt from 11/97 10Q) which is growing at 18% (or more because BM-S Taxol was recently approved for K-S), then I think cash flow will increase by at least 10% of that to ~$125 or about a $1.00 per share. In that case, IVX IMHO would be valued upon approval of Paxene at ~ $10 to $12/sh.
Am I missing something here? Why is this dog sinking like a rock in a dirty toilet? Is BM-S going to file an injunction if Paxene is approved?
Jackson
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BM-S exerpt 10Q 11/97
Sales of TAXOL* (R) (paclitaxel), the Company's leading anti-cancer agent, increased 18% to $242. In August 1997, the FDA cleared TAXOL* for use in second-line treatment of AIDS-related Kaposi's sarcoma.
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