MDR.v Mine Capex is $213M per May 2010 Tech Report.
Should be under this $213M without the $10M natgas pipeline and lower cost diesel generators (diesel generators are 1/3 the cost of duel fuel generators).
Mine Permit/DIA, expected in early October, should get MDR over $2. Bankable feasibility follow up news in November should get MDR to $2.50 minimum which was March 2011 PP price for 1.9M shares with 1/2 warrants.
Given current POG, and with IRR at 44% at $1,100 POG per May 2010 tech report with under 2 year payback, minimum takeover price should be well over $5.
MDR currently selling at $37 market cap per M&I ounce:
2.2M gold ounces M&I of which 1.9M are P&P
$81.5M market cap / 51M shares outstanding
*Seems to me an intermediate producer should be more than willing to pay $150/oz ($6.40 per MDR share or 4 times current share price)
*Capex at $220M for 2.2M M&I ounces = $100/oz
*Cash costs at $500 (likely conservative, $407 in tech report)
*Thus, all in acquisition cost to production = $150+$100+$500 = $650 per oz
*Thus, the acquirer could likely get total payback in 2 years at current gold price if they paid $6.40/share.
If you see any material** fault in this analysis, please advise... If not, please continue to jrgoldporno @
youtube.com
**Yes, I am ignoring sustaining capex which is minimal per tech report, G&A expenses of acquirer, recovery % to reduce gold ounces which should be made up by inferred ounces, cost of capital, etc. but this seems a materially accurate analysis. |
