acting man update:
Remembering Weimar and Oddly Cheerful Greeks
A closer look at Germany's 'institutional memory' of the Weimar hyper-inflation and how the anti-inflation attitude informs Germany's central bankers to this day. Current BuBa president Weidmann is no exception and he has just made clear again that he doesn't intend to leave the path of monetary rectitude. Although central planning of money can not work even with the best intentions, we prefer a conservative central banker like Weidmann to a willy-nilly money printer like Bernanke any day.
Meanwhile, Italy's debt has been downgraded again, but the markets have decided to instead focus on what the WSJ called 'oddly cheery messages from Greece' in the wake of the latest conference call between the 'troika' and the Greek government.
As we often say, 'hope' is not an investment strategy, but there it is again anyway. Includes updates on debt rollover schedules as well as our full suite of charts. N.b: on Monday CDS on Greek debt reached a new all time high of just below 6,000 basis points, putting the default probability at about 99% (assuming the standard 40% recovery rate, which is a heroic assumption indeed). Our index of CDS on euroland banks jumped by nearly 40 basis points on Monday, confirming the recent breakout over weekly resistance on the log chart.
acting-man.com
re kids
erita is super, is a good student and being a big sister to jack. i now accompany daughter to school 2-3 times per week and while on 30-minutes way would discuss with her whatever germane.
and jack has been very busy. his play time in room sounds like a war, and he would come out afterwards all sweaty from vigorous play.
a few days ago jack got into the habit of grabbing a handful of messy powdery stones from the tree pot in our living room and chuck same on floor as his first / entry act, in lieu of methodically removing soft corners from the dining table upon waking up and walking around. the soft corners are now useless as the glue backing has disintegrated after repeated removal.
we tried to teach jack to refrain from throwing the stones, first by trying to teach him to put the stones back in the pot, and later, upon admission of failure, putting jack in his day bed in the living area. i admitted failure to train as jack began to watch me watching him throwing the stones on the floor. this past sunday i was paying attention to my work and minding my own business, felt a tap on my leg, looked down, and jack smiled, threw a bunch of stones on the floor, and ran away.
i am and not so secretly, thankful that jack at one knows to tap me before throwing the stones, and did so with a smile, and knew well enough to run away. all good. perfect, in fact.
else i would be disappointed !
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