SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis
SOXX 312.18-0.2%Dec 9 4:00 PM EST
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
To: Return to Sender who wrote (53816)9/21/2011 10:22:14 PM
From: Jacob Snyder1 Recommendation  Read Replies (2) of 95541
 
Investors Intelligence Bulls-Bears sentiment vs. S&P 500 since 2000:

Is bulls = bears a buy signal?

I count 5 times on the chart (not counting the current one) when bulls minus bears reached zero. 3 of those times were good buy signals: mid 2002, 2006, and mid-2010. 2 times were not good buy signals: late 2001, and early 2008. Both false positive results (the signal said stocks had bottomed, when they hadn't), were during a cyclical bear market, when both sentiment and stocks later went much lower. Flipping a coin would give you 2 or 3 out of 5. This indicator isn't any better than flipping a coin, based on its track record since 2000. If I was going to use this signal, I would only use it to go long during a cyclical bull market correction. That is, I'd have to be certain we were still in a bull market, and I'm not. If we are in a cyclical bear market, both sentiment and stocks can go much lower from here.


webcache.googleusercontent.com
Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  

HomeMailHotSubjectMarksPeopleMarksKeepersSettings
Terms Of UseContact UsCopyright/IP PolicyPrivacy PolicyAbout UsFAQAdvertise on SI
© 2025 Knight Sac Media.  Data provided by Twelve Data, Alpha Vantage, and CityFALCON News