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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: Sergio H who wrote (44489)	9/22/2011 1:03:37 AM
From: Spekulatius	1 Recommendation Read Replies (2) of 78670

re FWLT - first you have to go beyond yahoo/finance to analyze companies. peer comparison is not a bad first shot but not sufficient by far. For one thing, PE is a not a leverage adjusted return - I use EBITDA/EV (which is readily available and not impact by tax) to make a quick comparison. When you do EBITDA/EV is is evident that FWLT is cheap because subtracting 800M$ in cash from a 2.4B$ market cap reduces EV. >>You will be able to get it cheaper.<< My bet is that even with the chart vodoo, you will not be able to pick the bottom better than I do. Most likely you will be correct but does it matter? Since you will never buy at a 52 week low you will never buy at a bottom either by definition. Maybe, if certain chart patters occur (a LT consolidation) you will be able to buy closer to it than I do. Based on my former experience, that may not happen however i found that infrastructure stocks are high beta and fall or run hard and fast and they also turn before fundamental indicators show up. And they do have an improving order book (P16): phx.corporate-ir.net

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