Ezra Klein takes a look, well does an obituary, on the politics of budget passage. It's all 24/7 confrontation now; wait for pressure points (government shutdown is typical) and then ignore past deals.
Klein offers the neatest summary I've read of the politics of the failed House vote last night.
----------------------------------------------------
 Thursday, September 22, 2011  Ezra Klein's Wonkbook 
Last night, the stopgap funding bill failed in the House. It was too conservative to attract substantial Democratic votes, as it set a precedent for offsetting disaster funds, and not quite conservative enough to hold Republicans, as it stuck to the spending levels agreed to in the debt-ceiling deal. As Rosalind Helderman and Paul Kane write, this was unexpected, and it was the product of some legislators unexpectedly buckling to grassroots pressure. For instance, "Rep. Norm Dicks, the ranking Democrat on the Appropriations Committee, said a week ago that he planned to join with Republicans in support of the measure. Under pressure from his party to show unity, he voted no on Wednesday." Well, someone isn't getting their profile in courage.
We've seen this film before, of course. Speaker John Boehner now has two choices: move left to get Democrats, move right to get Republicans. Either way, he'll have to somehow merge the bill with the legislation the Senate Democrats come up with. And then he'll have to get a vote for that final blended product. That one, presumably, will feature more House Democrats signing on.
Perhaps the best question is why we're surprised that the vote failed. The members of the House GOP Conference have stuck to a very sharp insight about congressional politics over the last year: leverage comes when legislation must pass.
That was true for the bills keeping the government's lights on early this year, it was true for the debt ceiling, and it's true for this bill, which could force a government shutdown if it falls apart. And that means there's an opportunity embedded in this vote: kill the bill, demand more concessions, undergo the grueling process of negotiations that we have now become used to, and then pass the legislation in return for more concessions than anyone expected you would get.
Perhaps, when faced with a White House that's become more confrontational and a Senate that is tired of being held hostage, this strategy will fail. Perhaps Democrats will even take a hard line and let the House Republicans succeed in shutting down the government because they want lower spending than they agreed to a month ago. Or perhaps Boehner will find some Democratic votes.
But this is, for now, the norm. Last night, during an interview with a senator on another topic, the news of the stopgap's failure came over the transom. "This is what it's like now," said the suddenly tired-sounding legislator. "The new definition of success around here is just keeping the lights on."
view.ed4.net |
