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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 309.40

+1.0%

Dec 5 4:00 PM EST

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To: pcyhuang who wrote (53834)	9/22/2011 4:45:59 PM
From: Return to Sender	1 Recommendation Read Replies (2) of 95530

Thanks for the honesty pcyhuang. At the last major bottom in 2009 I was only about 40% invested. I had started to get in before the market finally bottomed and was scared to fully invest due to my paper losses when it did. I made money. Not on everything mind you but on most positions. I think you will make money on the 85% that you are currently invested with as well. Since no one knows the future who knows that your 85% long invested positions won't end up making you far more money than my nearly 85% cash. I still have to get in. The dollar is finally showing some life but I want to make some real money rather than watch my cash deflate. I want to be fully invested or at least 85% like you are myself. I am just waiting for the all clear sign. A sign that can be a long time coming and difficult to read even when it does. Time will tell how well this works out but we have lived through a few cycles on this thread. I think we are learning something together about how to access risk and reward as we near bottoms and tops. Pessimism is important in locating a bottom. We have plenty. But we are missing other ingredients. Volume is not yet there. Still too strong for a real bottom. Still no 90% upside days. Plus outlooks from our favorite companies are still pretty good. We typically see a lot of no visibility claims from semiconductor and especially semi equips as we approach actual cyclical bottoms. JMHO, RtS

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