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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 309.40

+1.0%

4:00 PM EST

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To: Return to Sender who wrote (53835)	9/22/2011 5:12:59 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	2 Recommendations Read Replies (3) of 95526

I think this is a very important point. <<Plus outlooks from our favorite companies are still pretty good. We typically see a lot of no visibility claims from semiconductor and especially semi equips as we approach actual cyclical bottoms.>> At the moment, while revenue and earnings for the last half of 2011 have been reduced somewhat, estimates for 1H12 and 2H12 are still doing comparatively quite well. That was not the case going into and during the bottoming process at the end of 2008 and early 2009. During this period there was red all over the place. I don't know how we can hit a bottom with market estimates still quite strong, both for the semis and other stocks as well. I think we are in a trading range and may be for quite some time. The Fed has been "pumping money" into the stock market for a long time now in an effort to keep the economy going. We have a reasonably good stock market, but jobs, housing, and confidence are in terrible shape. If the Fed ever stops supporting the stock market, then we will get our bottom. FWIW, Don

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