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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum
GLD 371.65-1.1%Nov 17 4:00 PM EST
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To: THE ANT who wrote (80142)9/23/2011 7:44:09 AM
From: elmatador1 Recommendation  Read Replies (1) of 217846
 
Yes. It is obvious. I am not disputing that when I look to the set of circumstances that led individual countries to these outcomes and, more important into what this will turn, again for individual countries.

Let's look in this posting only to the Brazil and the outcomes affecting only it:

Brazil had an working economy before commodities boom and will keep it after the commodities comes to earth.

Indebted countries had an economy before the credit party, but will have a very different economy after the unwinding.

Brazil has nothing to do with the commodities boom. Meaning: it not actively worked for that boom to be created. Money piled up into it driven by China importing for its Industrial Revolution (it by passed the Industrial Revolution, you go there and you see anything old is made of wood, stones and bamboo) and investor piled up bets into it to

The problem for Brazil is as commodities plunge if it has to grow internally, it must change what its oligarchies, civil servants and lots of special interests. This is politically very difficult to achieve.

If it does not, any internal growth causes inflation since all bottlenecks cannot be worked without touching the reforms that have to be made.

Brazilian oligarchies, civil servants and lots of special interests are happy with GDP gorwth driven by exporting commodities.

If commodities boom comes down to earth, US and Europe tanks, and China slows down dramatrically, I expect a 2 to 3.5% GDP growth as it is Brazil's potential without reforms as pre-commodities boom.

Japan already went to the dogs and no longer matters.
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