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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: Paul Senior who wrote (44524)	9/23/2011 4:31:01 PM
From: E_K_S	Read Replies (1) of 78748

The Dow Chemical Company (DOW) Black Hills Corporation (BKH) I sold another lot of my BKH shares and plan to move the proceeds into DOW. DOW is now yielding over 4% and it's a company I want to add to my AG basket. Not too sure if it is the right time in the cycle (w/ potential of double dip) but it looks like a good value buy at current price levels. My last few shares of BKH (originally purchased 5/6/2009 @ $19.79), I plan to sell and move into MDU Resources Group, Inc. Commo(NYSE: MDU ) on any move below by MDU below $18.00/share. It's hard to let loose of BKH (I know you bought some around the same time at $17.00/share) but it's been a good run and I was able to peel off 1/2 at $38.00/share earlier this year. FWIW, I increased my MHR holding by 30% today (@ $3.77/share) and I was able to get the shares lower than my 8/11/2010 original entry price. I am buying these shares based on the value of their Midstream Operation (perhaps worth $500M) which could be operating earlier than expected (Q4 2011). If so, stock could be 50% higher as this subsidiary business is worth at least $4.00/share. Shareholders should receive MLP units when spun off from MHR early next year. I do expect MR Market to move lower (perhaps as much as 10%) but feel there are enough good value stocks out there now that picking up a few shares now (and possibly more at lower levels) will provide a good return over 2-3 year holding period. Some of these value picks are also paying pretty good dividends so holding them during any sustained down turn will still generate portfolio income. The key for me is to work on booking all my losses prior to year end to offset a lot of the gains I took earlier in the year. I want to try to fill up my basket of value stocks on continued market sell offs and/or year end loss selling. I guess this is the nature of turning the portfolio over as some of those 2009 bargains are being sold to buy the 2011 bargains (ie BKH). EKS

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