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With the greatest respect, I think it is a big mistake to sell IMNX now. In the big scheme of things, the recent price volatility is no big deal. You have to remember a number of things about this stock. First, it is up from $11 a year ago, so some profit taking is to be expected. Second, the Enbrel phase III results were very strong. In the phase III study, patients with advanced rheumatoid arthritis with the 25mg dose of ENBREL experienced a 71% reduction in their painful joint counts compared with patients in the placebo group who experienced a 6% reduction. That sounds string to me. All patients on Enbrel had previously failed to respond to four (or was it five) other drugs. There is no cure for rheumatoid arthritis and many patients stop responding to therapies after a few years or cannot tolerate the side effects. The Motgomery analyst seems to cast doubt on this result, suggesting that the patients enrolled in the trial had not failed to respond to prior treatment. But think about this.....he is effectively saying that the world class scientists who administered the phase III trials (and who were not IMNX employees, and whose scientific reputations are at stake here) did a sloppy job of screening patients enrolled in the phase III trials (and that only he has information about this). I find this assertion very hard to accept. Third, there is no effective treatment for sever RA. To say that some inexpensive generics already do the job is simply bull. The Montgomery analyst should go and tell that to thise who are bedridden with RA and have found no effective treatment. Fourth, even without Enbrel IMNX is now profitable (look at last quarter's results), they are cash flow positive, and they have a strong pipeline of products that may also become major drugs. And finally, don't forget that American Home has an option to buy IMNX next May. Given that they had a similar option to buy Genetics Institute, and exercised that, I think it is quite likely that they will purchase IMNX, and it will be at a significant premium over the stock price. So hang in there (and I see the stock is up this morning)! |
