Semi Equipment Analysis Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 306.28

-1.0%

Dec 4 4:00 PM EST

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To: pcyhuang who wrote (53922)	9/27/2011 10:33:39 AM
From: Return to Sender	3 Recommendations Read Replies (3) of 95525

I can find lots of reasons for the market to rally here on a technical basis. I can also see plenty of negative sentiment to support a rally. Throw in some short covering and any rally that starts here could easily test the top of our recent range. Unfortunately this rally will probably fail. Why? Volume on down days still outpaces up days. The VIX is still too high. It should fall significantly even as we hit lower lows before a real bottom forms. We still have not seen a single 90% upside day or two days of 80% upside in a row to help mark an actual long term bottom. Look at the difference between the 2009 bottom and now on these next two charts. The 2009 bottom first: Note that the VIX is still near its recent highs. It dropped considerably below the 2008 highs by the 2009 bottom even though the market hit lower lows in 2009. Way to close to the August highs in 2011 for this to be a bottom in my opinion. And where is the 90% upside day? We are close so far today but remember it has to come on higher volume than the previous selling to really mean anything. So we want to see about 6 billion shares trade today on a 90% upside day before I would go bullish. Until then short term trading rules. Long or short do not hold too long or you will watch your gains turn into losses. finance.yahoo.com JMHO, RtS

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