1Y SOX chart:
I'll make a specific prediction: For the next 6 months, shorting semis and equips when SOX is at or above its 50dma, will be consistently profitable. This has been true since the 50dma failed in March, and I expect it to continue being true. Load up (on shorts) if we get up to the 200dma. Wait for 10-20% down-moves to cover.
disclosure: Since 9/12, I've added short positions in AAPL, ARMH, DAL, UAL, KLIC, MU, all of which I still hold. I had placed some orders to cover at lower prices, but I've canceled those orders. For now I'm comfortable holding them, and awaiting events. |
