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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc.
DELL 125.88-1.6%Dec 31 3:59 PM EST
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To: McNabb Brothers who wrote (22092)11/19/1997 12:47:00 PM
From: Chuzzlewit  Read Replies (1) of 176387
 
<<Let me ask you this about FA! If TA can not predict what will happen how can the market in general or individual stocks tend to start up or down 6 to 12 months in advance of good or bad news? The market has always forcasted good and bad times 6 to 12 months in advance!>>

FA is not predictive of anything. It's best used as a method of weeding out weak companies from consideration as potential investments or identifying potential short candidates.

The other point is that the market is frequently wrong! Here are just a few stocks to remind you: ASND, JBIL, OXHP, WDC. Each of these was a high flyer until some major bit of uncomfortable news hit the market. If you go back to the threads just before the major decline for each stock and look at what the T/A folks were saying and compare it to what those same people were saying when the stocks were in the middle of their secular up-trends you will find no difference. Isn't the joke that the market has predicted three of the last two recessions?

I will stand by my statement. All evidence in favor of T/A is purely anecdotal and does not withstand rigorous statistical analysis. It's a religion clad in pseudo-science. It uses the buzz-words of statistics like "stochastic" but discards the central element: hypothesis testing.

Regards,

Paul
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