So, is the bear market in stocks over? Did I blink and miss it? <G> I've been wanting to establish a position, but haven't had a whole lot of time to pursue it. I don't have much bandwidth left after grad school, angel investing, and the entrepreneur program I'm in. Oh, and being part-time single Dad, too. But I think that the odds that we escape recession are extraordinarily slim, and if we do go back into recession, the market has much more downside work to do. I haven't given much thought to what I'd short, but I'm assuming that knowing how to sell a stock short remains an advantage given that few others do it. What do you think? The first indicator that one could safely sell short was probably that break in early August, and unless you were a glutton and sold into the selloff, the best entry one could hope for is a corrective-looking retracement of that decline. We've now seen that, and it looks like overhead resistance has held to date. I'll have to dig back into my notes to remember what themes I was shorting, but in general it was anything that had a high debt-to-capitalization ratio, particularly those with near-term maturities. Too bad there's no convenient source to find that kind of detailed data. I'm even tempted to establish a leveraged long position in the dollar now, as it looks like a retest of the upper end of the range of the past couple years could be forthcoming.
I should probably just ignore the markets and focus on my angel investing, but after having my pocket picked by my ex-wife and her a$$hole lawyer, I feel moved to find an opportunity to rebuild a little investing buffer, and what better time than in a nascent bear market.
The gold stocks have been just amazing to me - what a perfect example of the equity of the corporations not keeping pace with the price of the product they sell! I sold them years ago, and they can be had for similar prices even today despite the huge run in the metal. Still wishing I'd just dumped 10% of my portfolio into gold and 10% into silver back in 2002 and just enjoyed the ride...
`BC |
