hello c2, a few items:
(i) i am still on koh samui, leaving today for hong kong. the weather has been just beautiful here. i have been here for the week to engage with an off-site powwow session w/ my partners traveling from canada before they go to bangkok to turn another corner with our thai allies
(ii) the typhoon did not bother my family back in hong kong because as and when the typhoon signal 8 flag was raised, they simply stayed indoors, had plenty of provisions. they just pressed a button and lower all aluminum storm shutters. daughter called me, sounded happy for a 'snow' day - no school.
(iii) i have updated my quicken file by re-pricing every equity item at 2008 q4 / 2009 q1 lows, all paper au/pt @ 1k (physicals @ current mkt), ag @ 20, and rentals at cost, and by such psyche-steeling, i note that if i set nav 2008 dec to 100 (my losses that year was something around -2%)
- nav this day would be +88% higher,
- the losses from high watermark 2011 would be -23%, and
- ytd loss would be - 17.5%; and
- all acceptable, and
- would be a good enough position to getstillmoregold at 1k.
(iv) if all is valued as above (ii), the allocation this day would be
- 4% cash
- 33% pm (incl all puts on gld / slv as if they are exercised @ strike prices 170, 165, 160, / 33, 30 against me w/ above 100 and 20 'mkt' prices)
- 18% equity (incl puts on gdx, gdxj, paas, etc exercised @ respective strikes against me with 'mkt' prices set at 2008 / 2009 major lows)
- 45% rental (at cost, in aggregate approx 1/3 of current mkt)
(v) of the tradable items (meaning everything except rental and cash, thus limited to the above noted 33% pm and 18% equity)
- 50% gold (25/25 physical:paper)
- 28% platinum (16/12 physical:paper)
- 3% silver
- 4% mining
- 6% energy
- 9% other (nly, mcd, hk stock exchange, p.e.)
(vi) thus mentally prepared, am ready to leverage up as and when and if paper au / pt actually hit 1k
(vii) i then revalued all paper metals and equities to market, and feel better
- 3.5% cash
- 35% pm
- 22% equity
- 39.5% rental
(viii) of the tradable items (meaning everything except rental and cash, thus limited to the above noted 35% pm and 22% equity)
- 53% gold (25/25 physical:paper)
- 27% platinum (16/12 physical:paper)
- 4% silver
- 4% mining
- 4% energy
- 8% other (nly, mcd, hk stock exchange, p.e.)
(ix) i am down 4.3% ytd, and 10% down from 2011 high watermark
given the circumstances, i would note the situation bears watching and briefing, but panic? no, because once we have decided on the macro premise, and given that the script has tracked true, we must continue to be faithful.
besides, gold is up for the year, so what is the problem?
1999 Dec 31st USD 288/oz
2000 Dec 29th USD 274/oz -6%
2001 Dec 31st USD 279/oz +3%
2002 Dec 31st USD 348/oz +25%
2003 Dec 31st USD 416/oz +20%
2004 Dec 31st USD 438/oz +5%
2005 Dec 30th USD 519/oz +18%
2006 Dec 29th USD 638/oz +24%
2007 Dec 31st USD 833/oz +31%
2008 Dec 31st USD 889/oz +7%
2009 Dec 31st USD 1,095 +23%
2010 Dec 31st USD 1,421 +30%
2011 Sept 30th USD 1,620 +14%
2011 Dec 31st USD 1,xxx +/- ??%
(xi) gold going to 1,000? fantastic, leverage and buy as and when, for i had always contended that at some astute moment once recon in force is complete, we might leverage our gold for more gold
- 1971 to 1981 gold traced out 35 to 191 to just under 100, and then ... 850
- fractal scaled, since 2001 we traced from 274 to 1,920, to ?,??? or ???, and then ... easily conceivable 8,500.
- i shall take that wager, because it has merit and is worthy.
- where is 1,600 worth of paper money going? not 8,500 ;0)
cheers, tj |
