NPK Weekly
Fertilizer Market Focus on Grains Intensifies
30 September 2011 ¦ 11 pages
citigroupgeo.com
Markets Slow Amid Uncertain Macro and Grain Backdrop — As the North American
harvest hits full stride, fertilizer markets are focused on two key uncertainties: 1) what
impact a slowing global economy will have on fertilizer demand, and 2) is the sharp
decline in corn prices (which have fallen from ~$7.50/bu to ~$6/bu over the past month)
signaling looser grain markets in 2012. The USDA’s quarterly grain stocks report
showed larger than expected stockpiles of corn (1.13B bu vs 0.96B bu consensus) and
wheat. Given the opposing forces of higher corn inventories, potentially offset by an
expected 400-500k acre reduction in harvested acreage and continued pressure on US
corn yields, both of which could reduce production, the upcoming WASDE report has
taken on even more importance to global grain markets. In North America, key fertilizer
prices were flat to down this week, with US Gulf urea falling 4% to $495/st, Central
Florida DAP prices unchanged at $588/st, and Saskatchewan potash flat at $540/st. In
addition, the October Tampa ammonia contract settled 10% higher to $650/mt
delivered, due to strong demand, gas curtailments in Trinidad and the outage at MOS’s
Faustina ammonia plant. |
