Hi ftth -
The spectrum debate has been a feature of this thread for years. Not expecting any useful change for a decade or more, I'm agnostic: no axe to grind. The article wasn't advocacy as much as analysis.
[1] "First off, nobody is claiming there is a spectrum shortage TODAY."
True, and the study includes that same point: "We do not believe the US faces a spectrum shortage."
[2] "The predictions of spectrum shortage are based on traffic growth forecasts by Cisco and many others, which put the growth in the range of a 70-100% compound annual growth rate. Apply that traffic growth rate to the available spectrum and the spectrum gets fully consumed some years out. It's just math."
True again. Also, as you and others have pointed out there are questions about the forecasts and their validity.
[3] "If those forecasts prove to be correct and applicable worldwide, there will be a spectrum shortage in EVERY country, in the not too distant future. It's the dense urban areas, which exist in every country, where the shortage first becomes apparent. If the forecasts are too high, that just pushes out the timeline."
Yep.
[4] "So I would say in general the carriers have deployed (spent capex) at about the right pace from a business perspective, and been able to detect when they need to add capacity and have done so."
In the sense of money flows and service levels, those points have been contested, especially at certain points in time (2004-ish). No sense doing a recap on criticisms; if you're saying that carriers are supplying "good enough" service at present, and have successfully met growing demand some would agree, while others might call it truthy. Does it matter?
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[5] "Assigning spectrum is a multi-year, multi-step process. You don't start it when there is already trouble, because the trouble will just compound over the years as the process works itself through. So you have to start the process now, and make some assumptions."
And that's why we're discussing spectrum, from many different standpoints. In a general sense, discussions about CR really relate to efficient use of spectrum, no? The "use it or lose it" debate pertains not to an existing shortage, but the ability to use present-day cash flow to hoard tomorrow's needed spectrum, thus limiting competition. As a business strategy, it makes perfect sense. But is it in the public interest?
I suppose where you stand on these spectrum-related issues depends on where you sit. If we're still around in another decade, very likely we'll still be debating the same old stuff with a few new wrinkles — on the sector, and us.
Jim |
