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Technology Stocks : NEXTEL

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To: Bubba who wrote (3292)11/19/1997 2:26:00 PM
From: Arnie Doolittle  Read Replies (3) of 10227
 
Rev. Bubba, this may be semantics but I have to disagree with you. Several times you refer to NXTL's R-POO, as industry wags call it, as a "premium" over the rest of the industry. Wrong comparison. The reason NXTL has a $70 R-POO is because customers actually save money by paying that amount. Remember, if you're going to compare NXTL vs. the other guys, you've got to calculate the cost of pagers and hand held two way radios. And what about the immediacy of direct connect which saves customers time? Then, and only then, do you have a real comparison.

If and when the other guys get direct connect, they'll charge extra for it too. Remember, they'll have additional infastructure costs in order to upgrade 3-5 years hence.

As to Morgan Stanley's 6 million users in 2001, their projection calls for 1 million plus net customer adds per year, easily doable. I doubt that $70 R-POO in 2001 is though. I'd be happy with $60 because it's almost a given that digital cellular prices for the basic part of the service will drop. The upside potential comes from increased volume per user. Since only 2% of U.S. calls are currently wireless, despite 44 million users, there's plenty of room for call volume growth.

Deacon Arnie, sitting in the first row - "Preach it, brother!"

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