ObamaCare's Growing List Of Broken PromisesBy JOHN MERLINE,
When the Kaiser Family Foundation reported last week that insurance premiums had climbed 9.5% this year — the biggest increase since 2004 — it looked as though a key promise of Obama-Care had been broken.
Indeed, just before he signed the health reform law, President Obama said it would "bring down the cost of health care for families, for businesses, and for the federal government." Instead, average family premiums have climbed $2,393 since 2008, the Kaiser survey found.
This is the latest ObamaCare prediction that has failed to materialize. If the history of state and federal health care reforms is any guide, it won't be the last.
Among other busted forecasts:
ObamaCare promised immediate help via subsidized "high-risk pools" for the millions that the administration said were denied coverage. The White House expected 375,000 would rush to sign up by the end of last year. As of July 2011, only about 30,000 had, according to the Health and Human Services Department.
Backers of the reforms failed to predict the impact of raising annual payment caps on low-cost health plans that many smaller companies offer. As a result, the administration had to approve more than 1,500 waivers, or risk seeing the ranks of the uninsured swell by 3.4 million.
ObamaCare's promised price tag has already been exceeded. It was supposed to cost $938 billion over the first 10 years, until the Congressional Budget Office realized that it had underestimated administrative costs. That correction boosted the total cost by 12%.
These failed forecasts shouldn't come as a surprise. An IBD review of state and federal health reforms shows that promises made almost never get fulfilled.
Commonwealth Care: When then-Gov. Mitt Romney signed Massachusetts' universal health care bill into law in 2006, he promised: "Every uninsured citizen will soon have affordable health insurance and the costs of health care will be reduced."
But just two years later, costs were 37% over the budget. A 2010 study found that "RomneyCare" boosted employer-sponsored premiums by about 6%. Meanwhile, more than 300,000 still lack coverage in the state.
TennCare: In 1994, Tennessee tried to expand coverage and lower cost through an ambitious program. Within five years, runaway costs forced the state to scale back TennCare.
Dirigo Care: In 2003, Maine started up a state-run health program to cover the state's 128,000 uninsured without raising taxes. Seven years later, it had just 16,000 enrollees and Maine still had 134,000 uninsured. Even so, costs far exceeded forecasts.
Medicare: When it started in 1965, government officials said its hospital insurance program would cost $9 billion by 1990. The actual cost was $67 billion. In its first year, expenses ran 50% above projections. By 1969, Congress was already holding hearings about "costly" Medicare.
This history calls into question whether ObamaCare's more ambitious promises — that it will save businesses money, cut the federal deficit, improve quality of care, etc. — can come true.
For example, Obama has often claimed that the reforms would not force workers to change their plans. "If you've got health insurance, you like your doctors, you like your plan, you can keep your doctor, you can keep your plan," he said. "Nobody is talking about taking that away from you."
But a Towers Watson survey found that almost one in 10 midsize and large companies would likely end coverage when Obama-Care fully launches in 2014. And a McKinsey survey found 30% of employers would "definitely or probably" drop coverage.
"The framers of the legislation blatantly ignored Obama's prom ise," says health care expert John Goodman, president of the National Center for Policy Analysis. Even if businesses don't drop coverage, he says, "the law will regulate what will be in company-provided plans, forcing up costs and giving workers less control."
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